Humans have three enemies: war, famine and fever. Since the inception of human being on the Planet Earth, he knew no peace and only God knows how many millions of people died as a result of wars in all Continents of the world. When would the world be at peace? The first world war killed millions. The second world war (also) killed millions.
But since the emergence of Globalization Policy based on 3 key principles; Democratization, Integration of Global Economy and Multiculturalism the world seems to be stabilizing, progressing politically, unifying economically and socially (Science and Technology are the keys) despite the fact that the South-South Nations of Africa and Asian countries (Asian Countries consist 60percent of global population and Africa has 17percent) are lagging behind the advanced Nations that 80percent of global’s Political and Economic Interplay belong to. Instability has been as a result of insurgency, robbery, banditry, kidnapping, corruption, diseases, poverty and instabilities especially in the African nations and Asian countries of the world.
Had it been that the global Political, Economic and Social Stakeholders can soft-pedal their policies on Economic Emerging Nations to ensure sustainability and balance of economic activities in Africa and other Asian countries; this writing understands that the world will be relatively at peace. Economy is the key and live wire of human lives. Integration of Global Economy and ten prescription of World Bank/IMF caused hardship especially removal of subsidies on oil, gas and agricultural produce in economic emerging nations of Africa.
Analysis of the situation
If war escalates in Europe as a result of invasion of Ukraine by Russia, then the world will never be the same as it is today. Russians will not allow Ukraine to join the European Union for security reasons. Although American President Joe Biden made allegations that “Vladimir Putin wanted to revive former Soviet Union”, this writing understands that Putin will never like to revive former Soviet Union because it will be a political and economic burden on Russia.
Russian population is a little above 145m and if the population of Ukrainians is added to the Russians’ Population that will be about 200m which will be a huge burden on Russia; economically and socially. Talk less of reviving former Soviet Union which consisted the current sixteen nations of Eastern Europe.
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For example, population burden seems to be what will never allow China’s ambition of becoming a global leader. In 1948, the total population of Chinese were around 450m but the currently number of Chinese population has been projected to be around 1.5B and had it been that measures had not been taken by the Chinese authority on population crisis ab-initio, Chinese people may have been around half of global population by now.
And this writing is on the same page with Professor George Friedman that “CHINA will not be a global leader” based on some reasons “Geopolitical, Social and economic burden such as healthcare, education, employment and so on. Hence, Vladimir Putin must avoid population crisis in his country especially in the era of Globalization as the world is moving into robotics and everything electronic in the world soon.
The war escalation in Ukraine:
Over 120,0000 people went out of Kyiv the Capital City of Ukraine and some are crossing to Poland, Romania and other European countries (There are about 4000 Nigerians in Ukraine most of them students) to avoid Russian advances towards the Capital City invasion. Some are hiding under the metro stations to avoid bombing of fire power from Russia. It is no more news that fighting is taking place in Kyiv City; explosion and gunfire has been heard everywhere in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. But President Zelensky insisted that the “Ukrainians are doing well to defend their country and will not put down their arms”. He said that Ukrainians are fighting by themselves and world countries are looking from afar.” Residential areas in the Ukraine Capital City have been under attacks by the Russian forces and America suggested that Kyiv maybe in the hands of Russia in the next few days. But what about the NATO’s help to Ukraine?
Sincerely, NATO seems to be not ready to fight Russia in Ukraine. Possibly because fighting Russia in Ukraine will change the current set-up of Europe and beyond. And Global Economic Interplay of the world will change and the whole of Globalization Policy in this world will change shape.
On the issue of mediation and negotiation, some experts opined that Israel may play a positive role in finding solutions to Ukraine and Russian crisis.
But this writing understands that United Nations (UN) and Nongovernmental Organizations may play a key role to bring solutions to the crises. But if the war escalates into the whole of Europe the world economy will be badly affected and the issue of Globalization Policy would need to be revisited.
To be continued inshaAllah…
Abbati Bako,psc,bsis, Kent,UK Political Strategy and Communication Analyst/Consultant